Flawed Guardianship: Implications of a Pregnant Mexican Wolf's Death

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An Irreversible Mistake

Arizona, April 14, 2025 — In the shadowed heart of the Southwest, a fateful order was signed: AF1823, a seven-year-old female Mexican gray wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), was marked for death. The authorization came from Brady McGee, Mexican Wolf Coordinator, dispatching the task to the sharp rifles of the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service–Wildlife Services.

Asiza, named by Arizona schoolchildren, carried a name rich with meaning, in one tongue, "noble, precious, and beloved"; in another, a spirit of the forest, a deity who walks unseen among trees, sometimes known as the "Queen of the Forest."

The execution order was precise: only an uncollared wolf of the Bear Canyon Pack, roaming the wild slopes of Greenlee County, was to be killed. A strict warning was added, sparing the wolves bearing radio collars, especially the breeding female with the broken signal, Asiza, whose body was already heavy with the promise of a new litter.

Amid the execution, tragedy unfurled. In an official breath of language, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service later confessed: Asiza had been "mistakenly lethally removed" on that Spring day. The removal order, they added, was closed, but the life lost could not be called back. Before the fatal shot rang out, the Bear Canyon Pack had been a fragile family of seven, three pups, three adults, and one wolf whose age was still a mystery. Now, with Asiza’s death, the forest grew a little quieter, and the future of her bloodline, woven so delicately through the hills and canyons, faded into uncertainty.

Catron County Declares Emergency Over Wolves, Citing Livestock Losses

On April 3, three Catron County commissioners unanimously approved a disaster resolution, declaring a state of emergency: Buster Floyd Green (District I), Audrey H. McQueen (District II), and Haydn Forwards (District III). This special meeting was held in response to what they described as an "exponential explosion" of livestock losses caused by wolves.

The resolution’s language was dramatic, framing the Mexican gray wolf as an existential threat to the local ranching community. However, data suggests these claims may be exaggerated. A 2019 estimate indicated that each wolf would need to kill or injure approximately 13 cattle per year to match the level of depredation claimed by livestock producers. With a 2023 population of 257 wolves across the Mexican Wolf Experimental Population Area (MWEPA), the math does not appear to support the scale of destruction alleged.

The tone of the county’s press release signaled the political undertones at play. Conservative media outlets quickly amplified the alarm, portraying wolves as a dire threat to the cowboy way of life. State Representative Gail Armstrong, a Republican with ranching ties, pledged to personally deliver the emergency resolution to the governor. Speaking to the broader public, she emphasized that the concern was not only about livestock losses but also about stress to the animals and perceived threats to children. "It’s about my 13 grandkids playing in the front yard," she said.

Public meetings grew increasingly charged. Commenters expressed outrage, alleging that their children were terrorized by wolves. Catron County Sheriff Keith Hughes underscored the community's fears, vowing to prioritize human safety over federal mandates. "I’ll be damned if I’m going to let a kid be killed," Hughes said, adding that he opposed wolves being present on private lands without landowner consent; a position resonating with broader conservative anxieties about government overreach.

The emergency declaration highlights the deep tensions between conservation efforts for endangered species and traditional ranching interests in the rural West; a conflict where emotion, politics, and science continue to collide.

Furthermore, the silence from both federal agencies about this "mistake kill", and the lack of transparency about exactly how they intend to prevent situations like these in the future is condemnable from a public opinion point of view. Us wildlife managers are entrusted to manage wildlife for all stakeholders and their attitude in this matter exhibits an unwillingness to engage all stakeholders head on exhibits fickle leadership in my opinion.

Summary of Wolf-Related Livestock Losses and Ecological Context

The Mexican Wolf Experimental Population Area (MWEPA) spans parts of Arizona and New Mexico within the Apache-Sitgreaves and Gila National Forests, bounded by Interstates 40 and 10.

Estimating the total number of cattle across this whole region is a matter of aggregating the data from all the counties in the area, and precise counts are not always readily available. According to the New Mexico Agricultural Statistics Bulletin, Catron County, which lies entirely within the MWEPA, had 25,000 head of cattle and calves in 2023, including 15,300 beef cattle. Other counties in New Mexico include parts of Socorro (10,000 heads), Sierra (3,000 heads), Grant (6,000 heads), and Lincoln (2,400 heads).

In Arizona, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported that in 2023, Apache County had 40,000 heads, Navajo County had 25,000, and Greenlee County had 15,000. Parts of Coconino (10,000 heads) and Graham Counties (5,000 heads) can also be found within the MWEPA. Aggregating these figures, we can see that between the counties in New Mexico (46,400 heads) and Arizona (95,000 heads), we reach an approximate total of 141,400 heads of cattle across the MWEPA.

The US Fish and Wildlife Service has confirmed 100 livestock depredations in 2024 across the entire Mexican gray wolf recovery. Assuming my figures, the percentage of annual livestock losses in the entire area is far below the one percent figure. Ranchers argue the figure is underrepresented, but this has not been proven empirically.

The USDA reports that respiratory problems still account for the highest percentage of deaths in cattle. APHIS knows that the majority of the cattle and calf deaths are due to non-predator factors like disease, calving complications, and environmental stressors. In addition to disease, drought, a pervasive issue in the Southwest, causing foraging reductions which lead to starvation, is a well-documented killer of cattle in New Mexico. In 2021, Sonora, Mexico, droughts dropped cattle numbers by almost 58% (635,000 from 1,100,000 heads), and in Catron County, data reported in 2023 indicates a similar trend. Lightning strike in New Mexico is known to have caused mortality, but the figures are not readily available.

The environmental degradation caused by free grazing in the habitats of New Mexico and Arizona, including the Gila National Forest (Catron County grazing lands are within this area), has damaged 50% of the surveyed streamside. This leads to a drastic reduction of available water and forage, further weakening cattle, making them more prone to disease and starvation, which can lead to increased predation. Furthermore, overgrazing has already led to juniper encroaching, reducing the amount of grassland cover, and furthering erosion issues.

The Scientific Importance of Azisa's Loss

The lethal removal of this crucial breeding female Mexican gray wolf has broader implications than a typical individual loss within the population. Two primary factors underscore the significance of this event: the loss of genetic diversity and the disruption of social structure within the wolf family group.

Genetic Implications

The Mexican gray wolf population is critically genetically constrained, having been reestablished from only seven founding individuals following their extirpation in the wild by the mid-20th century. As a result, genetic bottlenecking and inbreeding depression are persistent threats. The removal of a reproductive female like Azisa reduces the already limited genetic diversity, increasing the likelihood of deleterious alleles becoming expressed and reducing overall population fitness. Given the small effective population size, each breeding individual plays a disproportionate role in maintaining genetic variability. Random genetic drift in such a small population further amplifies the risk of losing rare alleles critical for adaptability and long-term survival.

Social Structure Implications

Mexican gray wolves depend on stable group dynamic structures for survival. Breeding pairs act as the central coordinators of pack cohesion, pup rearing, and hunting strategies. The death of a female breeder destabilizes these dynamics, often leading to elevated stress, impaired cooperation, and decreased hunting efficiency. Such disruptions increase the probability of livestock depredation, as smaller, destabilized packs may resort to opportunistic feeding behaviors. Studies have demonstrated that group stability  disruption is strongly correlated with increases in human-wildlife conflicts.

Broader Conservation Context

Mexican gray wolves remain listed as endangered at both the federal and state levels. Despite this designation, management agencies such as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services (USDAWS) have demonstrated inconsistent adherence to scientifically informed conservation practices, particularly regarding transparency in lethal management decisions. Political pressures continue to influence management outcomes, often at odds with conservation goals grounded in biological science.

A key conservation framework guiding North American wildlife management, the North American Model of Wildlife Conservation (NAMWC), is based on the Public Trust Doctrine (PTD), a legal principle that asserts that wildlife is a public trust resource, whereby government agencies have a duty to protect and manage these resources on behalf of all citizens, both present and future, not private interests. Another core tenet of the NAMWC is that scientific evidence must form the basis for wildlife management decisions, a principle historically championed by Aldo Leopold. However, deviations from these standards are particularly evident in predator management, where anecdotal evidence and political lobbying frequently override empirical science.

The continued subsidization of livestock grazing on public lands, where much of the Mexican gray wolf habitat lies, adds another layer of complexity. Public resources are being compromised for private benefit, often to the detriment of endangered wildlife recovery efforts. Grazing fees in the region, set at just $1.35 per Animal Unit Month (AUM), a cost significantly lower than feeding cattle on private land, are heavily subsidized by the public. Yet, many ranchers view these federal lands not as a privilege, but as an entitlement and resent any stakeholder participation in management conversations that are in favor of wolves in the landscape. This context is often absent in the heated rhetoric surrounding wolves.

In sum, the loss of Azisa represents a significant setback for Mexican gray wolf recovery efforts, both genetically and socially, and highlights ongoing deficiencies in science-based wildlife management in the United States. As a scientist, I see little justification in the killing of this particular wolf due to her biological and ecological significance to the wolf restoration project. Furthermore, as a private citizen, I am disappointed that the trust the public places in wildlife management agencies can be so easily broken, thus undermining years of hard work in recovering species that we have already nearly exterminated in the past. I respect the USFWS and it is an agency that I often defend for their courage and hard work. But they need to do better than this.

READ RESOLUTION No 56-2025: DECLARING A DISASTER IN THE COUNTY OF CATRON DUE TO THE EXTREME AND CONTINUAL INJURY & DAMAGE CAUSED BY MEXICAN GREY WOLVES

Resolution 56-2025 - Declaring a Disaster in the County of Catron Due to the Extreme and C.

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